Rainfall (see Chart at bottom of page)

End of June 2010: So far this calendar year we have had almost twice the rainfall of 2009 to the end of June. The ground is very wet ("sodden" sometimes comes to mind!). We are heading towards the 1000mm we received in 2004. So far this winter, we have only had a few frosts and they were not severe. The weather pattern seems to turned into what I always thought of as typical Melbourne winter pattern with a series of cold fronts coming off the southern ocean each bringing a significant rain event. However, it has not been bitterly cold so it has been a bit disappointing for the skiers so far. 

Late May 2010: March saw some significant rain events that had some people thinking the "autumn break" was upon us unusually early. However, we had had a record run of days with maxima over 20°C (over 125 days before the end in mid May). This was conclusive proof that there had not been any southerly outbursts that bring the end to the summer dry period and the start of the moister autumn and winter period. By late May as I type, it looks that we have now entered a period characterised by quite frequent but irregular cold fronts passing us, bring us some modest rain. We did have a cooler period in mid May when fires were essential (we use timber from fallen trees from the property for all our heating) but then it warmed up again and, while we have a fire in the combustion stove today, it is more for show than warmth. 

We have also not had a day with a minimum under 10°C since Spring in 2009. Looks like climate change is bringing us more than predicted by the computer climate models.

Western Europe would have Siberian winters if it wasn't for the Gulf Stream passing from the Caribbean past eastern USA to bring warm water to the coast of north western Europe. In the "Younger Dryas" period as the last ice age was winding down, there was apparently a major release of fresh water into the north Atlantic that for some hundreds of years reversed the warming trend and plunged western Europe back into ice age-type winters. Could the record melting of the Artic ice cap last northern summer be slowing the northward flow of the Gulf Stream, bring the unusually cold and snowy winter that crippled much of western Europe and eastern USA this year? This is not to predict that global warming will result in another Younger Dryas period in Europe but it might result in the winters like those of northern Norway becoming the norm much further south. Time will tell......  

End of December 2009: Right through until September, our total rainfall was the lowest since we have been here but tracked upwards in Spring to bring it to be effectively the same as last year. Spring was more "normal" with the ground becoming saturated to a good depth but the end of October to late November was dry and hot until we had four significant rain events. These were rather different from my memory of Melbourne summer weather with moisture funnelled across the whole continent from the tropical north giving us higher humidity and monsoon-fed rainfall right through to the south. We saw this last year as well.

Is this a new pattern forming from Global Heating? Victoria's summers used to be hot and very low in humidity with dry northerly winds interrupted by brief southerly changes that dropped the temperature and gave meagre rain totals across summer. Another strange thing about this new "pattern" is that rain totals are higher north of the Divide than to the south -- unheard of in my experience of over 30 years of our summers.  

End of august 2009: While well below other years, the slope of the rainfall accumulation for the year is almost now parallelling other better years. No torrential downfalls to bring us back into an "average" year but looking better that early in the year. 

End of June 2009: We are looking very green but the grass is not growing much but that is what would be expect for the middle of winter. However, our cumulative total is still half of our longer term average for this time of the year. Now they are predicting another El Nino event for this coming Spring. Looks certain to be our worst year rainfall-wise yet.

End of May, 2009: After what looked like a good autumn break around the Anzac Day weekend, we have had a month of the lowest rainfall for the calendar year since we have been here. Indeed, for Melbourne, it has been the driest May since records have been kept (over 150 years). We have had just enough rain combined with sunshine and unusually warm temperatures for this time of year for the grass to keep growing reasonably well. While the decade long drought seems to have broken in other parts of Australia (Lake Eyre in the central desert of South Australia is filling up with flood water from Queensland!), the south eastern corner is drier than it has ever been. However, since it is usually just about the wettest part of the mainland, we are still in reasonable shape. 

End of March, 2009: While we have had some modest autumn rains, enough to start the pastures growing (and enough to black out the remaining fires in the forests), we had had the lowest rainfall accumulation since we came here. Here's hoping for good autumn and winter rains!

End February, 2009: The first 2 months of the year were the driest we have seen with 19mm in all. Melbourne, about 100km to the west, received only 3mm for this period, the lowest on record. With 3 or 4 days in a row in early February over 40°C, the area (and the whole Sate of Victoria!) was tinder dry. The 45°C+ day on 7th with strong northerly winds created a firestorm the likes of which we have never seen before in Victoria.  We need 50mm+ of rain but who knows when it will come. 

Also, looking at the maximum/minimum thermometer a few days later, it seems that a maximum of 50°C may no longer be enough for Victoria .......

Mid-January, 2009: To summarise 2008, it was not as bad as 2006 but otherwise was the worst year since we have been here. While we missed out on much in the way of Spring rains, November and December were similar to our better years and even a bit too wet for the walnut trees with bacterial blight a problem on the leaves of some trees. January 2009 is the driest since 1908 for Melbourne (only 100 km away) with 0.8mm of rain in the gauges there. While still drying out badly here, we have had 12.5mm to 25th. We are facing a record row of days over 40°C over the next few days. 

Mid October, 2008: The accumulation line remains parallel (and well below) our previous worst year. Although the ground seems to be moister than last year and pasture growth is remaining rapid. September and October are usually the wettest months here but have not been for a few years now. Is it lingering drought or is it global heating causing a permanent shift in the weather base line? 

Mid August, 2008, rainfall is finally trending upwards. After almost 100mm in July, we have had another 50mm in the first 2 weeks of August. Last night, there was more than 12mm in less than 8 hours. Now the ground feels spongy under foot, even on the crests of hills. The "normal" winter weather pattern of cold fronts coming up from the southern ocean bring bands of rain has returned. The Baw Baw Mountain plateau just to our north is covered in snow (the heaviest I would think for several years). The spring growth of the pasture should be excellent. However, in the meantime, we are keeping our cattle happy with copious quantities of hay. The downside is that the ground is so soft that their hooves are making quite a mess of any heavily trafficked areas such as around the hay feeders!  

At the end of April 2008, we have had the lowest cumulative rainfall in any of the years we have been here. We are certainly not out of the drought in this region, even if it seems to have broken in other parts of Australia. We are low on grass but have adequate hay cut during the summer. We are running the lowest stock levels for some time. We have been feeding supplementary hay for the last few months and the steers are a bit on the fat side if anything. Perhaps we have been overdoing the hay. 

As of the end of December 2007, our cumulative rainfall for the calendar year (880mm) was significantly under that of the "non-drought" years but trending upwards to follow precipitation patterns of non-drought years (950mm and 1000mm). The December total was boosted by 100mm over just a few days shortly after we had finished bring in our hay - perfect to encourage pasture regrowth. It has turned hot and dry for the New Year so fingers crossed for some more significant downpours soon. 

At the end of September 2007, the cumulative rainfall is now heading back towards a "normal" year after a very dry autumn. August was also dry but September has given us reasonable precipitation. The grass is growing almost as you watch it now and the steers are one happy little bunch. 

If we receive reasonable rainfall for October and/or November, we should be looking at a good year. We are one of the few areas in south eastern Australia in this happy situation. Fingers crossed about the Spring rains to keep things going through into Summer.    

As of the end of June 2007, total rainfall for the year is heading back towards the total of the dry years of 2005 and 2006. We have a long way to go to exceed the totals of 2004. However the rainfall has been steady and the paddocks are now saturated. 

The up-side is that we have avoided any disastrously heavy rains seen further east of us but the ground is now very soft underfoot and any areas where the steers take it into their heads to congregate tends to be chopped up very badly. We are de-stocked compared with summer and our meagre growth of grass during this cold weather is being liberally supplemented with hay. (Fortunately we had a bumper crop of hay last summer for some unknown reason -- possibly just dumb luck by spreading fertiliser at just the right time.)

At the end of April 2007, it looks as though I typed too soon (item below). With only 14.5mm for April, this is the lowest we have recorded for this month. Will there were some good totals in the west of Victoria in late April, the systems slipped away to the south, giving us almost nothing. The pastures are now all very low and, even if we have rain this week, it will be getting cold before long, meaning that the pasture grasses won't grow even if they have water. 

A grim prospect for winter. 

As of the end of March 2007, it appears that we may have an early autumn break with a the highest rainfall in March we have recorded to date. This follows the previous year (2006) where our total annual rainfall was down by 30% compared to the two previous years. Spring of both 2005 and 2006 were both dry but 2006 did not give up the catch-up rains during the subsequent winter and spring.